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Abstracts - Volume 2Part 1

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New Methods and Understanding in Economic Dynamics?
An Introductory Guide to Chaos and Economics (p.1)
By J Kemp

This paper considers the relevance of chaos theory to economics. It provides an introductory survey of the central ideas of chaos and non-linear dynamical systems at a level which is appropriate for the non-technical reader, and provides pointers to accessible reading. The failures of linear modelling are outlined, after which the major features of non-linear and chaotic dynamical systems are explained and explored. This is followed by sections discussing the implications for economic methodology and the directions of theoretical and empirical research.

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The Unitary Model of the Peasant Household: an Obituary? (p.27)
By H Akram-Lohdi

This paper explains the logic of the new household economics (NHE) by examining its application to peasant households in contemporary developing economies. The paper begins by explaining the origins of the NHE. A typical NHE model is then developed. Next, an influential NHE model of the peasant household is presented. Finally, a critique of the NHE analysis of the peasant household is offered. The paper argues that the neoclassical NHE approach to the peasant household fails to address the issue of socially constructed norms of agency and contestation, norms which are central to any understanding of the peasant household and indeed of any household.

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Bank Credit in the EU: Long-run Independence or Integration with Germany? (p.43)
By M J Holmes

This study examines the long-run role of Germany in the determination of bank credit in the EU. For a sample of nine EU members, the Johansen procedure is employed to test for common trends and bivariate cointegrating relationships with Germany. Long-run causality is investigated through tests which are based on the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. Long-run equilibrium relationships with Germany are identified in most cases. However, the results lend limited support to the German dominance hypothesis since credit provision appears to be more interactive in nature.

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Advertising Investment in the Brewing Industry: An Empirical Analysis (p.55)
By A J Abbott, K A Lawler and M C H Ling

This article analyses the significance of long-run advertising investment in the UK brewing industry. The Johansen multivariate cointegration procedure is utilised to estimate a model of the demand for beer to compare the effectiveness of `main-media' and `below the line' advertising. An error correction model is estimated to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. The empirical analysis shows that both forms of advertising have no significant impact on the total barrelage sales in the UK. One reason for this may be that advertising influences the distribution of barrelage sales between brewers rather than the total quantity of beer sold.

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The Economics of UK Agri-Environmental Policy: Present and Future Developments (p.67)
By I Fraser and N Russell

UK agricultural policy is evolving with the development of agri-environmental legislation which aims to protect and improve the rural environment.. The growing importance of agri-environmental policy is further emphasised by its role in the 1992 MacSharry Reform of the CAP and its position in the 1995 Uruguay Round of the GATT. This paper provides a broad overview of the economics of agri-environmental policy in the UK. The reasons why agri-environmental policy exists, its form and the potential implications of the recent reforms are considered. It is suggested that the future development of policy in this area will need to take more seriously the conditions required by the GATT.

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Page last modified on 26 May 2000