Please select from the titles below:
- Contagion and the Role of Market Development: the Case of the Malaysian Futures Market during the East Asian Crisis of 1997
- Quantification of Expectations. Are They Useful for Forecasting Inflation?
- Imperfectionism in Macroeconomics: New Light on an Old Controversy
- Determinants of the Demand for Live Entertainments: Some Survey-based Evidence
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Contagion and the Role of Market Development: the Case of the Malaysian Futures Market during the East Asian Crisis of 1997 (p.1)
by D Brookfield and A Azizan In looking to explain the possible transmission and causal flows in volatility between financial markets during an economic crisis and the impact of possible contagion, we examine the specific circumstances surrounding the role of the development of futures index trading in Malaysia in relation to the East Asian (or Asian) crisis of the late 1990's. Specifically, our main contribution is to assess whether an undeveloped and subsequently developing futures market had the 'efficiency capacity' to transmit fair prices and, failing that, whether price contagion was spread via futures index trading.
Quantification of Expectations. Are They Useful for Forecasting Inflation? (p.19)
by O Claveria, E Pons and J Suriņach
Business tendency surveys are commonly used to provide estimations of a wide range of macroeconomic variables before the publication of official data. The qualitative nature of data on the direction of change has often led to quantifying survey results making use of official data, introducing a measurement error due to incorrect assumptions. Through Monte Carlo simulations it is possible to isolate the measurement error introduced by incorrect assumptions when quantifying survey results. By means of a simulation experiment we check the effect on the measurement error of respondents diverging from "rationality". We also analyse the predictive performance of different quantification methods for fourteen EU countries and the euro area. We find that allowing for asymmetric and stochastic response thresholds (indifference interval) produces a lower measurement error and more accurate forecasts.
Imperfectionism in Macroeconomics: New Light on an Old Controversy (p.39)
by J E KingThe issues at stake in recent debates about ‘imperfectionism’ in macroeconomic theory are strikingly similar to questions raised in the revisionist controversy in German Marxism in the later 1890s and beyond. Orthodox Marxists claimed that the law of value could operate effectively only under free competition, while their revisionist critics countered that the growth of monopoly would improve coordination between different sectors of the economy and reduce the severity of crises. Some strange and unwitting intellectual alliances can be identified. New Keynesian thinking shows clear affinities with orthodox Marxism, while Post Keynesian ideas on this question resemble closely those of the revisionists.
Determinants of the Demand for Live Entertainments: Some Survey-based Evidence
(p.51)
by S Cameron This paper presents estimates, based on survey evidence, of the determinants of total demand by the public for attendance at live events, such as opera, rock music, musicals and theatre. The paper estimates equations for total attendance in the last twelve months as a function of perceptions of price, income, consumption of substitute goods, demographic variables and measures of the 'social network' effect of attendance (including loneliness). The equations are estimated using a fixed effects model for male-female differences. Some differences are established between males and females. There is only limited evidence for a significant role of social network effects.
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